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What's So Wrong With The Pitching?

I have been listening to the naysayers for several months now regarding the Nat's starting pitching for the upcoming 2005 season. Barring health issues, where's the problem? Look at the ERA averages for our starting four over the past three seasons:
Armas: 4.21
Hernandez 3.78
Day: 4.01
Ohka: 3.92
I think those are good ERA's for this hitter's era. If Armas wins 14, Hernandez 16, Day 12 and Ohka 10, the Nats have 52 wins from the starting four. For comparison:

I opened my Baseball Encylopedia to the '69 Nats, and the wins broke down this way:
Starting pitchers: 54 wins
Bullpen pitchers: 32 wins
Total wins: 86

The 2005 Nats should have 52 wins from the starters, 30 from the bullpen, for 82 wins. A .500 season, something we'd all be happy to have.

we'll see.

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