Time To Take Clinical Look At Nationals 2005 Season
That the Cinncinati Reds swept the Washington Nationals is disconcerting, of course. But a single series in a long season is too small a sampling to worry about. These things happen. But with the season now at the quarter poll, let's take a look at how we've done, and where we've headed. The stats shown next to the players are projected numbers for the 2005 season based on their performances thus far.
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1B] Nick Johnson
.317 - 25 - 89 -- 96BB - 126K - .426OBP - .512SLG
Nick's effort thus far translates into a nice season. Although his homerun and RBI numbers are sub-par for is position, his on base and slugging percentage are very good.
What to do with Johnson: Mix in his potentially golden glove, and Nick Johnson has earned his place among the better first baseman in the league.
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2B] Jose Vido
.290 - 21 - 77 -- 67BB - 57K - .365OBP - .510SLG
These numbers assume that Vidro would begin playing again tomorrow, which of course isn't going to happen. However, when he does return in about 10 days, I do believe that he will approach these numbers anyway.
What to do with Vidro: Although many think of him as "old," he is only 31 and has another five good years left. No question Jose needs to continue to be part of this team.
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SS]Christian Guzman
.188 - 4 - 22 -- 29BB - 100K - .227OBP - .240SLG
Um. Does anyone else see a problem here? After 6 very similar seasons with the Twins, Guzman leaves one of the few remaining bastians of Astroturf and loses 50 or so points off his batting average, and his doubles and triples almost dry up, again a product of the quickness of artificial turf. I don't think he'll end up hitting .188 -- more likely, we'll seem in the low .220s before the season is concluded.
What to do with Guzman: He is never going to help the Nationals as Bowden envisioned, and will never return to the Christian Guzman who played for the Twins. With Guzman in the lineup, there are automatic outs in both the 8 and 9 holes in the lineup. Either trade him now [no real chance there] or demote him to backup, or release him and make Jamie Carroll the interim shortstop until Ian Desmond shows whether he is a major leaguer or not.
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3B]Vinny Castilla
.286 - 15 - 91 -- 65BB - 69K - .364OBP - .468SLG
Vinny Castilla is the success story of Jim Bowden's free agent signings. Virtually all his numbers are below that of a quality 3rd baseman, but he is nonetheless far superior to what the Expos had at 3rd last year, and his defense makes him a very productive member of the Nationals.
What to do with Castilla: Castilla is a lock at 3rd for the rest of the year, but next year is more "iffy." If the Nationals continue to try to hover around the .500 mark, then Vinny will likely be at the hot corner in 2006. But what of Brendan Harris? Though his defense is not nearly as good, his play at every level suggests a .280-25-95 type of player. The only way he'll ever get better is to play every day. Let Vinny play out the year and keep him on the bench next year in case Harris falters. At his small salary, he might be traded next year to a contending team suffering an injury at third base. He will be 39 next year. We have to be prepared.
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LF]Brad Wilkerson
.276 - 11 - 63 -- 66BB - 185K - .350OBP - .443
Brad Wilkerson has come to a crossroads. Is he going to continue to develop into a better player, or has he settled into a .250 hitter with some power and a lot of strikeouts. Based on these projected numbers, he's not a lead off hitter. If we keep him, put him in the 5 or 6 slot in the lineup. I'm afraid he strikeouts too often to be counted on consistantly.
What to do with Wilkerson: I know this may not set well, but I'd rather trade Wilkerson and see Ryan Church in left on a regular basis. No question that Brad has the talent, but he's not the kind of player to build around. More likely, he would make a great 2nd tier player on a contending team. A trade could bring a starting outfielder and perhaps a pitching prospect. He'd look good in the Dodgers outfield, or the Braves. Would the Braves part with some talent for Wilky? You bet.
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CF]Ryan Church
.298 - 13 - 65 -- 26BB - 91K - .340OBP - .436SLG
Ryan Church's numbers reflect a player who hasn't had much of a chance to play on an everyday basis. A projection of only 26 walks is sickly. However, his slugging percent is pretty good and he'll only get better with a chance to be on the field every day.
What to do with Church: Lock him in and let him play every day. He may not be a great player but he'll certainly be a good one. I think he'll have power just below Wilkerson, with a much lower strikeout total. Let's give this guy a chance
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RF]Jose Guillen
.289 - 33 - 100 -- 22BB - 111K - .326OBP - .520SLG
Jose Guillen is doing everything that GM Jim Bowden hoped he'd do when he traded for him last fall. A quick scan of his projected stats finds only one"uh-oh," walks & on base percentage. His OBP is.326, which makes sense considering he'll walk only 22 times all season. I think that is a bit of an abberation, though -- that might look different by season's end.
What to do with Guillen: Staple his cleats to the locker room floor and sign him to a long term contract. This is the guy you build around
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C]Brian Schneider
.238 - 8 - 45 -- 37BB - 66K - .299 OBP - .377SLG
With the exception of Brian's batting average, all of these other projected numbers do resemble his career averages. Schneider has always had a poor on base percentage, and is slugging percentage is ok for a catcher. Of course, Schneider is in the game for his glove.
What to do with Schneider: If the Nationals can field a lineup that hits on a consistant basis, they then can afford to have Brian Schneider catching. However, right now, the bottom third of the lineup just can't hit, and that makes Schneider a liability, not an asset. Brian Schneider is a good catcher and needs to remain with the team.
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At somepoint during this season, Frank Robinson and Jim Bowden are going to have to make some tough choices. The guys we're playing now, if they remain healthy, can win more games than they lose. That's very important from a marketing standpoint during this initial season in D.C. But doing this might harm the team's long term impact in the NL East.
Does anyone seriously think that Christian Guzman is superior to Jamie Carroll at short right now? Many in the organization believe that Savannah Sand Gnat Ian Desmond, who showed great promise during spring training, might be ready for the "show" in two or three years. Until then, I think Jamie Carroll gives us a better chance to win than Christian Guzman. Hard choice #1. What about third? Vinny Castilla is holding his own, and may provide a nice little season for 2005. But Brendan Harris has hit at every level he's played, and will only get better with playing time. He'll never get it with Vinny entrenched at 3rd. Hard Choice #2. The biggy may be Brad Wilkerson. I really think he's peaked, and he's not the leadoff hitter than I was lead to believe he was. He reminds me of a guy in the late 1960s named Nate Colbert. Once he got a chance to play everyday, he hit some homeruns and struck out a ton. His career was relatively short because of that. Do we trade Brad before he proves he's as good as he'll ever be? Hard choice #3. The rest of the lineup is good, and I would be happy to see them open the new stadm in 2008.
So, do we plan for this year, or for the future? Time will tell.
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1B] Nick Johnson
.317 - 25 - 89 -- 96BB - 126K - .426OBP - .512SLG
Nick's effort thus far translates into a nice season. Although his homerun and RBI numbers are sub-par for is position, his on base and slugging percentage are very good.
What to do with Johnson: Mix in his potentially golden glove, and Nick Johnson has earned his place among the better first baseman in the league.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2B] Jose Vido
.290 - 21 - 77 -- 67BB - 57K - .365OBP - .510SLG
These numbers assume that Vidro would begin playing again tomorrow, which of course isn't going to happen. However, when he does return in about 10 days, I do believe that he will approach these numbers anyway.
What to do with Vidro: Although many think of him as "old," he is only 31 and has another five good years left. No question Jose needs to continue to be part of this team.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SS]Christian Guzman
.188 - 4 - 22 -- 29BB - 100K - .227OBP - .240SLG
Um. Does anyone else see a problem here? After 6 very similar seasons with the Twins, Guzman leaves one of the few remaining bastians of Astroturf and loses 50 or so points off his batting average, and his doubles and triples almost dry up, again a product of the quickness of artificial turf. I don't think he'll end up hitting .188 -- more likely, we'll seem in the low .220s before the season is concluded.
What to do with Guzman: He is never going to help the Nationals as Bowden envisioned, and will never return to the Christian Guzman who played for the Twins. With Guzman in the lineup, there are automatic outs in both the 8 and 9 holes in the lineup. Either trade him now [no real chance there] or demote him to backup, or release him and make Jamie Carroll the interim shortstop until Ian Desmond shows whether he is a major leaguer or not.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3B]Vinny Castilla
.286 - 15 - 91 -- 65BB - 69K - .364OBP - .468SLG
Vinny Castilla is the success story of Jim Bowden's free agent signings. Virtually all his numbers are below that of a quality 3rd baseman, but he is nonetheless far superior to what the Expos had at 3rd last year, and his defense makes him a very productive member of the Nationals.
What to do with Castilla: Castilla is a lock at 3rd for the rest of the year, but next year is more "iffy." If the Nationals continue to try to hover around the .500 mark, then Vinny will likely be at the hot corner in 2006. But what of Brendan Harris? Though his defense is not nearly as good, his play at every level suggests a .280-25-95 type of player. The only way he'll ever get better is to play every day. Let Vinny play out the year and keep him on the bench next year in case Harris falters. At his small salary, he might be traded next year to a contending team suffering an injury at third base. He will be 39 next year. We have to be prepared.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LF]Brad Wilkerson
.276 - 11 - 63 -- 66BB - 185K - .350OBP - .443
Brad Wilkerson has come to a crossroads. Is he going to continue to develop into a better player, or has he settled into a .250 hitter with some power and a lot of strikeouts. Based on these projected numbers, he's not a lead off hitter. If we keep him, put him in the 5 or 6 slot in the lineup. I'm afraid he strikeouts too often to be counted on consistantly.
What to do with Wilkerson: I know this may not set well, but I'd rather trade Wilkerson and see Ryan Church in left on a regular basis. No question that Brad has the talent, but he's not the kind of player to build around. More likely, he would make a great 2nd tier player on a contending team. A trade could bring a starting outfielder and perhaps a pitching prospect. He'd look good in the Dodgers outfield, or the Braves. Would the Braves part with some talent for Wilky? You bet.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CF]Ryan Church
.298 - 13 - 65 -- 26BB - 91K - .340OBP - .436SLG
Ryan Church's numbers reflect a player who hasn't had much of a chance to play on an everyday basis. A projection of only 26 walks is sickly. However, his slugging percent is pretty good and he'll only get better with a chance to be on the field every day.
What to do with Church: Lock him in and let him play every day. He may not be a great player but he'll certainly be a good one. I think he'll have power just below Wilkerson, with a much lower strikeout total. Let's give this guy a chance
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RF]Jose Guillen
.289 - 33 - 100 -- 22BB - 111K - .326OBP - .520SLG
Jose Guillen is doing everything that GM Jim Bowden hoped he'd do when he traded for him last fall. A quick scan of his projected stats finds only one"uh-oh," walks & on base percentage. His OBP is.326, which makes sense considering he'll walk only 22 times all season. I think that is a bit of an abberation, though -- that might look different by season's end.
What to do with Guillen: Staple his cleats to the locker room floor and sign him to a long term contract. This is the guy you build around
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
C]Brian Schneider
.238 - 8 - 45 -- 37BB - 66K - .299 OBP - .377SLG
With the exception of Brian's batting average, all of these other projected numbers do resemble his career averages. Schneider has always had a poor on base percentage, and is slugging percentage is ok for a catcher. Of course, Schneider is in the game for his glove.
What to do with Schneider: If the Nationals can field a lineup that hits on a consistant basis, they then can afford to have Brian Schneider catching. However, right now, the bottom third of the lineup just can't hit, and that makes Schneider a liability, not an asset. Brian Schneider is a good catcher and needs to remain with the team.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
At somepoint during this season, Frank Robinson and Jim Bowden are going to have to make some tough choices. The guys we're playing now, if they remain healthy, can win more games than they lose. That's very important from a marketing standpoint during this initial season in D.C. But doing this might harm the team's long term impact in the NL East.
Does anyone seriously think that Christian Guzman is superior to Jamie Carroll at short right now? Many in the organization believe that Savannah Sand Gnat Ian Desmond, who showed great promise during spring training, might be ready for the "show" in two or three years. Until then, I think Jamie Carroll gives us a better chance to win than Christian Guzman. Hard choice #1. What about third? Vinny Castilla is holding his own, and may provide a nice little season for 2005. But Brendan Harris has hit at every level he's played, and will only get better with playing time. He'll never get it with Vinny entrenched at 3rd. Hard Choice #2. The biggy may be Brad Wilkerson. I really think he's peaked, and he's not the leadoff hitter than I was lead to believe he was. He reminds me of a guy in the late 1960s named Nate Colbert. Once he got a chance to play everyday, he hit some homeruns and struck out a ton. His career was relatively short because of that. Do we trade Brad before he proves he's as good as he'll ever be? Hard choice #3. The rest of the lineup is good, and I would be happy to see them open the new stadm in 2008.
So, do we plan for this year, or for the future? Time will tell.
# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 1:19 PM 
