Can Barry Bounce That Curve Anymore?
Now that the euphoria of being in first place is beginning to die down [yeah right!], it might be wise to take a look at the next pitcher the Nationals will be facing, Oakland's Barry Zito.
Zito's 2005 record: 2 - 6, 4.52 ERA
Zito's 2004 record: 11-11, 4,48 ERA
Zito's 2003 record: 14-12, 3.30 ERA
Zito's 2002 record: 23-5, 2.75 ERA
The question that begs to be asked is, what happened to Barry Zito in the last two years? He has gone from Cy Young to Matt Young in just two seasons.
The first glaring number, aside from the ERA is the opponents batting average. In the four years prior to 2004, they were .195, .230, .218 and .219. In 2004, it jumped to .272, and is .275 this year. He is striking out more, but is allowing more hits over the past two years and his walks have remained about the same. So it's not about velocity or control. It's about command.
Hitters seem to be laying off his hammer curve and waiting for his 89mph fastball, deadly when the curve works, but more like a batting practice fastball when the curve isn't doing its thing. The curve used to be Zito's "out" pitch, and now hitters don't concern themselves with the curve and instead wait on the fastball. His home runs allowed jumped from 19 in 2003 to 28 in 2004; he is on pace to give up 20+ again this year. This is what you would expect when professional hitters are holding back, waiting for 89 mph fast balls.
Perhaps time is taking its toll on Zito's arm. Nolan Ryan pitched until he was 46, and Roger Clemens is pitching today because the fastball doesn't wear down the pitching arm like a curve ball does, and as we all know, Zito IS a curveball pitcher. Without an effective curve, there is no Barry Zito.
Barry Zito could easily revert to form in cavernous RFK Stadium, but I wouldn't count on it. Zito has given up 98 baserunners in 68 innings, and that is a recipe for disaster in any ball park. Don't count on a win, but don't count on Zito embarrassing the Nationals with his hammer curve either.
Did Ryan Church's homer against a lefty on Sunday earn him a start tomorrow night? That should be an interesting decision for manager Frank Robinson.
# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 5:12 PM 
