An Ovation For The Rotation
"How are they doing this?" "They can't possibly keep this up." "They don't lead the league in anything." "They'll wilt like the tulips in Mom's yard when summer comes to D.C."
[June 9th - 12:00] I've heard them all. I agree with some of them. The Nationals are either 4th or 5th out of 5 NL East teams in virtually every important offensive category. They are 4th out of 5 in ERA at 3.95. Yet, the Washington Nationals are 33 - 26, a season high seven games over .500, 1 1/2 games ahead of the Phillies for first place. No, at first glance, the overall numbers don't look promising. In fact, I'd go out on a limb and say that, all in all, they suck big time. But if you go a little deeper in the numbers, especially the pitching stats, you'll begin to see just how they are "doing" this, and from what I can tell, there isn't a mirror in sight.
Yes, the team ERA is 3.95, and yes, it is 4th in the division. But so much of that ERA is baggage from earlier in the season, when players who were pitching poorly were still with the team. Guys like Antonio Osuna, Joe Horgan, Claudio Vargas and Zach Day were killing the pitching numbers.
Zach Day:
INNINGS: 36 RUNS: 29 ERA: 6.75
Antonio Osuna:
INNINGS: 2 RUNS: 11 ERA: 42.43
Joe Horgan:
INNINGS: 6 RUNS: 15 ERA: 21.00
Claudio Vargas:
INNINGS: 12 RUNS: 13 ERA: 9.43
These four players had a combined ERA of 10.92. Without them, the Nationals' ERA drops all the way down to 3.35.
3.35 -- really.
Now, I know that you could dive into the pitching stats of most any team and pull out their four worst pitchers and say, "See, we have a great pitching staff." But here's the difference: OUR GUYS AREN'T HERE ANYMORE. The 3.35 represents the ERA of the Washington Nationals with the pitchers currently on the staff.
The starting staff looks like this: [the number in the parenthesis is their ERA over the last five starts]
John Patterson: [4.68] - Patterson gave up 8 runs in two starts just before going on the disabled list. He has since given up only 2 runs total in his last two starts.
2005 statistics: 2-1, 2.70 ERA
Tomo Ohka: - [3.00] - Ohka has only pitched one bad game in his last five, and that was his last outing against the Marlins, giving up 3 runs in 3 innings.
2005 statistics: 4-3, 3.33 ERA
Livan Hernandez: [3.31] - Without that first bad game on opening day, Livan's season ERA would be just 3.05
2005 statistics: 8-2, 3.45 ERA
Esteban Loiaza: [3.35] - Forget his wins and losses, he's pitched brilliantly all year. C'mon Jim, sign the guy soon.
2005 statistics: 2-4, 3.48 ERA
Tony Armas Jr.: [4.88] - Don't be fooled by these numbers; he'll be one of the top 2 or 3 guys on the rotation by season's end.
2005 statistics: 2-3, 4.91
The starting pitchers have a combined ERA of 3.51, and when you look at only each of their last five starts, about the last month of the season, their staff ERA drops to 3.29. How much better than that can we as fans hope for?
So, it looks more like sound pitching and less like smoke and mirrors as to the reason the Nationals are maintaining their position as division leader in the National League East. Manager Frank Robinson realizes that the offense isn't strong enough to allow pitchers to stay in the game and "work out" the kinks. Robinson has done a credible job of pulling his pitchers at just the right time, always keeping a fresh arm on the mound.
So, here we are, in first place, heading towards the first day of summer. The next time someone says, "I don't know how they are doing it," why don't you tell them, "I do. It's the pitching."
You'll be right.
