THE BELTWAY BOYS: This Is How Predictions Are <i>Supposed</i> To Go

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This Is How Predictions Are Supposed To Go

[January 16th] -- Well, I was close.

Back in January, I wrote the following article regarding the Nationals' starting rotation and their chances for 2005:

"I have been listening to the naysayers for several months now regarding the Nats' starting pitching for the upcoming 2005 season. Barring health issues, where's the problem? Look at the ERA averages for our starting four over the past three seasons:

Armas: 4.21
Hernandez 3.78
Day: 4.01
Ohka: 3.92

I think those are very good ERA's for this hitter's era. If Armas wins 14, Hernandez 16, Day 12 and Ohka 10, the Nats have 52 wins from the starting four. For comparison, I opened my Baseball Encylopedia to the 1969 Washington Senators, and the wins broke down this way:

Starting pitchers: 54 wins
Bullpen pitchers: 32 wins
Total wins: 86

The 2005 Nats should have 52 wins from the starters, 30 from the bullpen, for 82 wins. A .500 season, something we'd all be happy to have. We'll see.

Well, the 2005 Nationals ended up having 54 wins from the starters, 27 wins from the bullpen for a total of 81 wins. I was one game off in my prediction. [Pat me on my back here]

Of course, the starting staff isn't close to what I envisioned, so perhaps my crystal ball just got lucky. If I get the 2006 season right, though, be looking for a Beltway Boys toll-free number to be added to my site. Need to know the winner of tonight's game? Call me. Need to know what your wife wants for her birthday? Call me.

Well, it could happen.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 9:56 AM

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Rasner Rocks For Yanks

What was it that Jim Bowden said when he lost Darrell Rasner to the Yankees through waivers last winter? Wasn't it something like, "C'mon, it wasn't like he was going to make an impact at the major league level?" Well Jimbo, it seems like some of your "minor" transactions are coming back to haunt you.

Rasner, a 6'3" righty from Carson City, Nevada, was waived February 11th by the Nationals, just a couple of weeks before the start of spring training. He was picked up and assigned to 'AAA' Columbus. He had some injuries this year, but it didn't effect his pitching. In 58 innings for the Clippers, Rasner went 4-0, 2.76. But wait. There's more.

Pitching on Sunday against the Twins, Rasner pitched 6 strong innings, allowing just 1 run on 6 hits. In two starts, he's now 1-0, 1.17.

What do you always like to say, Jim, something about "You can never have enough pitching?" Let's see, you waived Rasner, and he's starting for the Yankees. You waived Claudio Vargas, and he's starting for the Diamondbacks. You waived Byung Young Kim, and he's starting for the Rockies. You traded Tomo Ohka for a guy no longer in the major leagues, and he's starting for the Brewers.

Jim, if I were you, I'd stay away from the waiver wire. Seems like you haven't figured it that it's supposed to help the team, not hurt it.

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Big Changes, Little Names

Big happenings? Nah. Just happenings. Zach Day was designated for assignment by the Colorado Rockies and Capitol Punishment is reporting that the Nats have claimed him off the waiver wire. So we ended up getting Preston Wilson for nothing. That's nice. Billy Traber, he of the tight leash, was sent down to New Orleans and replaced by Mike O'Connor.

That's all well and good, but don't look to any of these moves making a difference in the play of the team. But hey, it's something to talk about. Right?