This Is How Predictions Are Supposed To Go
Back in January, I wrote the following article regarding the Nationals' starting rotation and their chances for 2005:
"I have been listening to the naysayers for several months now regarding the Nats' starting pitching for the upcoming 2005 season. Barring health issues, where's the problem? Look at the ERA averages for our starting four over the past three seasons:
- Armas: 4.21
- Hernandez 3.78
- Day: 4.01
- Ohka: 3.92
I think those are very good ERA's for this hitter's era. If Armas wins 14, Hernandez 16, Day 12 and Ohka 10, the Nats have 52 wins from the starting four. For comparison, I opened my Baseball Encylopedia to the 1969 Washington Senators, and the wins broke down this way:
- Starting pitchers: 54 wins
- Bullpen pitchers: 32 wins
- Total wins: 86
The 2005 Nats should have 52 wins from the starters, 30 from the bullpen, for 82 wins. A .500 season, something we'd all be happy to have. We'll see.
Well, the 2005 Nationals ended up having 54 wins from the starters, 27 wins from the bullpen for a total of 81 wins. I was one game off in my prediction. [Pat me on my back here]
Of course, the starting staff isn't close to what I envisioned, so perhaps my crystal ball just got lucky. If I get the 2006 season right, though, be looking for a Beltway Boys toll-free number to be added to my site. Need to know the winner of tonight's game? Call me. Need to know what your wife wants for her birthday? Call me.
Well, it could happen.